If you’re looking for macro takes, CNBC headlines, or excuses for why nothing works — you’re in the wrong place. The Trading Initiative is where real traders come to level up. We don’t chase news. We don’t follow narratives. We follow price. Led by Hamilton, TTI teaches traders how to identify trends, isolate relative strength, and capture momentum like professionals. If you’re ready to stop second-guessing and start trading like it’s your business, this is where you belong.
Shit Stocks Are Paying. Literally.
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The Fertilizer Index broke out to multi-year highs today. Not AI. Not semiconductors. Fertilizer. The stuff that literally comes out of the ground. We covered this last week during the Execution Report webinar. The setup was all over the data. And today we sold a double in DOW.. a specialty chemicals name scoring 84 in our Flow Score with perfect trend and momentum readings. A double. 100%. In 4 weeks. In a chemicals stock. While most people are staring at tech and throwing cash at Polymarket hoping for rate cuts. Materials has a Flow Score of 41. That sounds average. It's not. Because inside that 41 is one of the widest spreads in the entire market right now. Fertilizers are scoring 88 as a group. CF and IPI both have perfect 100s.. the highest scores in our entire universe. NTR at 93. MOS at 83. Four names above 83 in the same industry. The last time we saw this was in energy stocks right before the conflict with Iran began.. it's not common. Aluminum is working too. AA and CENX both above their major moving averages with full trend support. Meanwhile steel is at 36. Construction at 31. CLF at 16. EXP at 16. Same sector. Completely different stories. The reason fertilizers are ripping isn't complicated. The Strait of Hormuz disruption is repricing the entire supply chain. 50% of global urea and sulfur exports transit through that strait. CF is up 55% year to date. This isn't just widespread speculation.. it's supply chain math. And here's the bigger picture. Energy leading. Materials running. Commodities breaking out. This is later stage bull market behavior. This is when capital rotates out of growth and into real assets.. the stuff the global economy actually needs to function. It tends to accelerate once it starts. The Flow Score had us positioned in these names before any of this was a headline. No predictions. No macro calls. Just following where institutional capital was going.. and it was going into the ugliest, most boring corner of the market. Today that paid us a double. Tech stocks are cool. Literal shit stocks are paying. Our weekly Flow Reports break down where institutional capital is flowing across all 11 sectors. If you want to see what the Flow Score is pointing at right now inside of Materials and commodities, grab a free copy here: Profits Over Prophets, Hamilton Every week we publish the Flow Report.. a proprietary system that tracks where institutional capital is moving across the entire market. No predictions. No narratives. Just data. If you want the full picture and access to the trades we are making because of it.. learn more about the Market Blueprint here. |
The Trading Initiative
If you’re looking for macro takes, CNBC headlines, or excuses for why nothing works — you’re in the wrong place. The Trading Initiative is where real traders come to level up. We don’t chase news. We don’t follow narratives. We follow price. Led by Hamilton, TTI teaches traders how to identify trends, isolate relative strength, and capture momentum like professionals. If you’re ready to stop second-guessing and start trading like it’s your business, this is where you belong.
The rotation out of US domestic assets isn't slowing down. It's accelerating. Over the last five sessions, emerging market bonds (EMB) pulled in over $1 billion in inflows. At the same time, US high yield corporate debt (HYG) saw nearly $500 million walk out the door. Think about what that means. Investors are choosing emerging market debt over US corporate junk bonds. Emerging Market Bonds vs High Yield Corporate Debt, EMG/HYG, Weekly The EMB/HYG ratio tells you everything. When it's rising,...
A lot happened this week in the markets.. crude oil up 30%+ is obviously where most people are focused. But as I went through our Flow Report yesterday, something stuck out to me that's even more important than what the energy sector is telling us.. This week, $967 million flowed into long duration Treasuries. At the same time, $1 billion left high yield corporate bonds. Another $1 billion left investment grade corporate bonds. Read that again. Institutions are buying government bonds and...
One of the best things I've done for TTI is bring on people who are smarter than me in areas I'm not. Randy is our commodities and volatility analyst. He lives in the weeds of metals, energy, and VIX products.. the stuff most people glaze over. When he brings me something, I pay attention. Because it usually means the rest of the market is about to pay attention too. He flagged something this week that I think is worth your time. Hamilton 52.4. That's the latest ISM Manufacturing PMI print.....