In Today’s Letter The Magnificent Seven are moving higher again. But they’ve trailed the S&P 500 since November. This week may be the first sign that leadership is changing. If the Magnificent Seven are so strong.. Why have they been losing to the rest of the market? That question might sound strange. After all, the Magnificent Seven have been moving higher for years. They’re some of the largest and most profitable companies in the world. And this week, they rallied nearly 4%. But going up...
10 days ago • 2 min read
In Today's Letter Bank earnings begin next week. Financial stocks are already making new all-time highs. The market may be telling us what to expect. Next week, the biggest banks in America report earnings. JPMorgan. Bank of America. Goldman Sachs. Wells Fargo. By next Friday afternoon, every financial news outlet will tell you who beat estimates and who didn't. But here's the question I can't stop thinking about.. If traders were truly worried about bank earnings.. why are they buying bank...
11 days ago • 2 min read
You just did something most traders never do.. commit to figuring out how this all actually works. So before tomorrow's email shows up, let me show you how I have survived three bear markets.. and made a couple bucks along the way. The lesson that took me 17 years I've been trading since 2009. The expensive lessons didn't come from losing trades. They came from the biggest winners in the cycle that I watched from the sidelines. Every one of those moves followed the same sequence. Institutions...
13 days ago • 3 min read
Earlier this week I asked on X what the most important sector was if your goal was to look at the entire US economy. My answer was industrials. It covers a huge amount of industry groups, many of which are directly involved with the manufacturing of American goods and services, and has the highest correlation to the S&P 500. But one of our members pushed back during our Market Blueprint webinar. "Financials! You can't have a bull market without the banks." And you know what? He's also right....
27 days ago • 2 min read
Earlier this week, Colombia followed the majority of LATAM countries over the last three years by electing a new right-wing president. It may come to a surprise to some of you but LATAM has experienced somewhat of a "red wave" over the last three years. Back in 2022, nearly the entire South American continent was under a version of the left. Since Milei's election in 2023, everything seems to have changed. Tensions were high.. they still are. And the rhetoric right now is anything but...
27 days ago • 2 min read
Would you rather be rich, or right? Because they are not the same thing. Everyone who called the bubble at the start of 1995 was right. The Nasdaq was stretched. Expensive. Euphoric. Every word they used fit. Then it ran another 1,000% before it popped. Let that sit for a second. Nasdaq 100, NDX, Weekly You could have nailed the call in 1995. Been completely right about the setup. And watched the index run another ten times over while you sat in cash or pressed shorts. Five straight years. A...
about 2 months ago • 1 min read
Copper is less than 3% from all time highs. Up 15% this year. And almost nobody is talking about it. The trade everyone’s chasing is semis. Then software. Not copper. Never copper. I get it. When semis begin jumping 30% off earnings, it’s hard to look at anything else. But our job isn’t to chase the loudest trade in the room. It’s to recognize a new trend, ride it out, then go find the next one. We’ve been pounding the table on the commodity super cycle for a year now. The DB Commodity Index...
about 2 months ago • 2 min read
The S&P 500 just closed higher than it opened nine weeks in a row. Going back to 1950, that has happened only 13 other times. The rally off the late March low has run about 20% in those nine weeks. Fast, relentless, the kind of move that has people tweeting "too far, too fast." So Randy on our desk did what we always do when a bad feeling shows up.. he went to the data instead. Here's what those 13 prior streaks did next. A month after a nine week run, the S&P was higher 84% of the time,...
about 2 months ago • 2 min read
Software was the trade nobody wanted. The headlines had it buried. AI was going to eat it alive. The $500 billion in private credit propping up the software economy was going to rot from the inside. The poster child for that fear was Oracle.. so loaded with AI debt that its credit default swaps hit a record and the rating agencies started whispering about junk. The most leveraged balance sheet in big software, and in September it was the first to crack.. the rest of the group followed it...
about 2 months ago • 4 min read
