Copper is less than 3% from all time highs. Up 15% this year. And almost nobody is talking about it. The trade everyone’s chasing is semis. Then software. Not copper. Never copper. I get it. When semis begin jumping 30% off earnings, it’s hard to look at anything else. But our job isn’t to chase the loudest trade in the room. It’s to recognize a new trend, ride it out, then go find the next one. We’ve been pounding the table on the commodity super cycle for a year now. The DB Commodity Index...
14 days ago • 2 min read
The S&P 500 just closed higher than it opened nine weeks in a row. Going back to 1950, that has happened only 13 other times. The rally off the late March low has run about 20% in those nine weeks. Fast, relentless, the kind of move that has people tweeting "too far, too fast." So Randy on our desk did what we always do when a bad feeling shows up.. he went to the data instead. Here's what those 13 prior streaks did next. A month after a nine week run, the S&P was higher 84% of the time,...
16 days ago • 2 min read
Software was the trade nobody wanted. The headlines had it buried. AI was going to eat it alive. The $500 billion in private credit propping up the software economy was going to rot from the inside. The poster child for that fear was Oracle.. so loaded with AI debt that its credit default swaps hit a record and the rating agencies started whispering about junk. The most leveraged balance sheet in big software, and in September it was the first to crack.. the rest of the group followed it...
19 days ago • 4 min read
Quick note before we get into it. A lot of the research you've been reading from us lately comes from Randy Dunham. Randy runs analysis on our desk.. he's the one buried in decades of market data, stress-testing the numbers everyone else repeats without checking, and turning it into something you can actually trade around. Today's a good example of why I trust his work. A new Fed Chair gets sworn in tomorrow. There's already a scary stat going around about what happens next. Randy didn't take...
28 days ago • 3 min read
The bond market is voting with their money. And they aren't buying bonds. The 10-year yield sits at 4.48%. The 30-year just broke above 5%. April CPI came in at 3.8%.. the highest reading in nearly three years. Yesterday's tape was the headline. The bigger story is what the long end of the curve has been telling us for three straight years. The 40-year secular bull market in bonds is over. US 10-Year Treasury Yield, US10Y, Weekly For four decades the path of least resistance for yields was...
about 1 month ago • 1 min read
Three things that rarely move together are moving together right now. Software. Bitcoin. Listed private equity. Pull the chart up and overlay them.. same week peak in September, same week trough in March, same V on the screen today. One is the longest-duration cash flow profile in the public market. One has no cash flows at all. One is a levered carry vehicle that does not function without an open credit market. They have nothing in common as businesses. They have everything in common as...
about 1 month ago • 3 min read
There’s a chart I keep coming back to this week. The US 10 year yield, sixty years of history in one frame, sitting on the edge of a breakout fifteen years in the making. I ran through the entire inflation, rates, bonds, and debasement idea on Friday during our weekly Academy Live webinar.. and it made a serious impact on our members. Let's talk about it. US Government Bonds 10-Year Yield, US10Y, Weekly A month ago I wrote about DBC pressing toward record highs and asked whether inflation was...
about 1 month ago • 4 min read
NVDA vs MAGS just broke out to new highs. After nearly two years of nothing.. the king of all stocks is leading the Mag 7 higher again. Think about that.. Nvidia vs Mag-7, NVDA/MAGS, Weekly The last time NVDA lead higher in this ratio was April 2023. You might remember what happened next. From April 2023 to June 2024: QQQ ran 55%. NVDA ran nearly 400%. The semiconductor industry group ran over 125%. That's not a rally. That's a regime. Here's why this matters.. the NVDA/MAGS ratio is the...
about 2 months ago • 2 min read
Intel (INTC) is at all-time highs afterhours. September 2025. INTC broke $26 and the Flow Score triggered a buy on a name nobody wanted. We opened the first position.. targeted the January 2026 contracts.. and we've been in the trade continuously ever since. Not a new call. Not a fresh trade. A continuous position held through one of the most hated stocks on the tape. Seventeen days ago I wrote a piece called They Bought The Tech Sector Last Week. I showed you the data. Seven tech names in...
about 2 months ago • 2 min read