If you’re looking for macro takes, CNBC headlines, or excuses for why nothing works — you’re in the wrong place. The Trading Initiative is where real traders come to level up. We don’t chase news. We don’t follow narratives. We follow price. Led by Hamilton, TTI teaches traders how to identify trends, isolate relative strength, and capture momentum like professionals. If you’re ready to stop second-guessing and start trading like it’s your business, this is where you belong.
The chart nobody's watching
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There's an ETF called EQRR. ProShares Equities for Rising Rates. It holds 51 stocks designed to outperform when interest rates go up. It just made new all time highs. That weekly chart is five years of chop between $42 and $63.. then a clean breakout in late 2025 that has not looked back. While the S&P is down 3.5% this year, this thing is quietly at $69.74 and accelerating. Nobody is talking about it. Look at what it owns. All energy. All up 30%+ this year. OXY up 51%. Valero 44%. ConocoPhillips 38%. The S&P is negative. These names are running like it's 2022 all over again. After the energy names it's travel and hospitality. Marriott. Royal Caribbean. Delta. Southwest. The companies that do well when the economy is hot enough to keep rates elevated. Then financials. JPMorgan. Interactive Brokers. Ameriprise. This isn't a random basket. It's built on decades of data about what works when rates rise. And the market is voting with its dollars that this environment isn't going away. The consensus for the last 18 months has been "rates are coming down." The Fed will continue to cut. Bonds will rally. Growth will continue to rip. Buy tech. That trade is not working this year. The 2 year yield just spiked back above the Fed Funds rate. 3.88% vs 3.75%. The last time the 2Y led higher like this was 2021.. right before the most aggressive hiking cycle in 40 years. The bond market is telling you cuts are likely not coming anytime soon. And when the bond market and the Fed disagree, bet on the bond market. Crude is above $90. Managed money is net long contracts in oil futures. Inflation is sticky. The long end hasn't budged. EQRR doesn't care about the next Fed meeting. It cares about what's actually happening. And what's happening is that stocks that outperform when rate expectations remain elevated are winning. Our current portfolio is built on the same thesis. We just rolled an XOM trade while banking +1,000% in profits. CVX sold the double. +150% on the options. PBR is +52% and moving toward its double target. EQNR is scoring an 80 in our Flow Score right now.. Norwegian state oil selling crude at Brent prices while the Street is obsessed with timing the software bottom. Four energy names in the Market Blueprint portfolio. All with perfect trend scores. All positioned for exactly what EQRR is telling you. Follow what the market is telling you. Not the narrative. Profits Over Prophets, Hamilton PS — Blueprint members get the full sector ranking every Saturday. Energy has been #1 for weeks. Three reports. Flows for every major asset class, capital leaders, and smart money exits. [See what you're missing.] |
The Trading Initiative
If you’re looking for macro takes, CNBC headlines, or excuses for why nothing works — you’re in the wrong place. The Trading Initiative is where real traders come to level up. We don’t chase news. We don’t follow narratives. We follow price. Led by Hamilton, TTI teaches traders how to identify trends, isolate relative strength, and capture momentum like professionals. If you’re ready to stop second-guessing and start trading like it’s your business, this is where you belong.
Would you rather be rich, or right? Because they are not the same thing. Everyone who called the bubble at the start of 1995 was right. The Nasdaq was stretched. Expensive. Euphoric. Every word they used fit. Then it ran another 1,000% before it popped. Let that sit for a second. Nasdaq 100, NDX, Weekly You could have nailed the call in 1995. Been completely right about the setup. And watched the index run another ten times over while you sat in cash or pressed shorts. Five straight years. A...
Copper is less than 3% from all time highs. Up 15% this year. And almost nobody is talking about it. The trade everyone’s chasing is semis. Then software. Not copper. Never copper. I get it. When semis begin jumping 30% off earnings, it’s hard to look at anything else. But our job isn’t to chase the loudest trade in the room. It’s to recognize a new trend, ride it out, then go find the next one. We’ve been pounding the table on the commodity super cycle for a year now. The DB Commodity Index...
The S&P 500 just closed higher than it opened nine weeks in a row. Going back to 1950, that has happened only 13 other times. The rally off the late March low has run about 20% in those nine weeks. Fast, relentless, the kind of move that has people tweeting "too far, too fast." So Randy on our desk did what we always do when a bad feeling shows up.. he went to the data instead. Here's what those 13 prior streaks did next. A month after a nine week run, the S&P was higher 84% of the time,...