DBC is up 30% year to date.

Let that sit for a second. The Invesco DB Commodity Index is up 30% in a little over three months. Against the S&P 500, it is up 35%. And most people I talk to think the trade is done.

They think this is the top. They think commodities have run too far too fast. They want to fade it and rotate back into tech.

I think they are wrong.

Two months ago I wrote about DBC hitting 3 year highs. The thesis was simple.. broad commodity strength leads, individual names follow.

I showed you that $7.5 billion flowed into natural resource funds in January alone. The largest single month inflow ever recorded. Institutions were already positioning before geopolitics gave them cover.

The divergence between DBC and crude oil was closing fast. And the reflexive loop I described in The Reflexivity Trap was playing out in real time.

If you missed that piece, here it is: DBC at 3 Year Highs. Here’s What That Means for Oil.​

Everything I laid out in February has continued. DBC didn’t pull back. It accelerated higher.

Now our analyst Randy just pulled the historical data on what happens after a move like this. He went back to 2007 and found only 4 other instances where DBC put up this kind of YTD performance by early April.

Here is the part that matters.

In every case, the initial signal led to continuation. Not reversal. The big tops.. the real climax tops.. came later. On the second signal. Not the first.

We are on the first signal.

That doesn't mean you blindly chase. It means the historical pattern says this type of move has more room to run before it exhausts itself. People calling for a top right now are early. The data says they are early by months, not days.

And energy is only part of the story. That's the other thing people get wrong.

They see oil headlines and assume the whole commodity complex is a crude oil trade. It's not.

Agriculture is trending. Metals are trending. Energy is trending. The breadth across the commodity space is wide.

When you see all three sectors moving together like this, it tells you something real is happening underneath. One commodity is not dragging an index higher. This is a broad based move.

I flagged this two months ago based on flows and price structure. Randy just confirmed it with nearly 20 years of historical data. The thesis hasn't changed. If anything, it got stronger.

Randy’s full breakdown with the historical comps, the charts, and the data behind all of this is available to members inside today’s report. If you want to see exactly what happened in those 4 prior instances and what it means for positioning right now, that's where you will find it.

Profits Over Prophets,

Hamilton

PS.. If you have been reading these free newsletters and wondering what the paid side looks like.. this is it. Randy’s commodity research, my weekly reports, the flow data, and the full trade setups. Market Blueprint members get all of it. Join here.​