The rotation out of US domestic assets isn't slowing down. It's accelerating. Over the last five sessions, emerging market bonds (EMB) pulled in over $1 billion in inflows. At the same time, US high yield corporate debt (HYG) saw nearly $500 million walk out the door. Think about what that means. Investors are choosing emerging market debt over US corporate junk bonds. Emerging Market Bonds vs High Yield Corporate Debt, EMG/HYG, Weekly The EMB/HYG ratio tells you everything. When it's rising,...
5 days ago • 1 min read
A lot happened this week in the markets.. crude oil up 30%+ is obviously where most people are focused. But as I went through our Flow Report yesterday, something stuck out to me that's even more important than what the energy sector is telling us.. This week, $967 million flowed into long duration Treasuries. At the same time, $1 billion left high yield corporate bonds. Another $1 billion left investment grade corporate bonds. Read that again. Institutions are buying government bonds and...
7 days ago • 3 min read
One of the best things I've done for TTI is bring on people who are smarter than me in areas I'm not. Randy is our commodities and volatility analyst. He lives in the weeds of metals, energy, and VIX products.. the stuff most people glaze over. When he brings me something, I pay attention. Because it usually means the rest of the market is about to pay attention too. He flagged something this week that I think is worth your time. Hamilton 52.4. That's the latest ISM Manufacturing PMI print.....
9 days ago • 2 min read
No newsletter this morning. Life got in the way. It happens. But we've been talking about a chart all day inside of TTI that I need to share with you before tomorrow's open. XOP. The Oil & Gas Exploration & Production ETF. Oil & Gas Exploration & Production, XOP, Weekly Look at that base. XOP has been building a cup and handle pattern since 2014. Twelve years. The neckline sits at $170. Price closed today at an 8 year high - pressing directly into the breakout level. If you're not familiar...
10 days ago • 1 min read
A couple weeks ago I wrote that if you wanted to know where Bitcoin was headed.. look at Software (IGV). They've been joined at the hip. Highly correlated. And at the time, both were getting destroyed. Well.. since the Citrini AI article dropped on February 22nd, Software is now the leading industry group in the market. Not semis. Not energy. Software. And it's not random. IGV is bouncing off the exact same support level that held during the Trump tariff panic in April 2025. The same level...
12 days ago • 1 min read
The Commodity Index Fund (DBC) is breaking out to levels not seen since November 2022. Nobody is talking about it. DBC doesn't trend on X. It doesn't get a CNBC segment. It's not sexy enough to make the headlines. But it's one of the single most important charts in the market right now. DBC tracks a broad basket of commodities.. energy, metals, agriculture. When this index breaks to multi year highs, it's telling you something about the entire commodity complex that no individual asset can....
12 days ago • 2 min read
Energy is up 25% year to date. And it's set to gap up nearly 4% by market open. The situation in the Middle East is a huge factor here, but the truth is this.. The strength in the Energy sector has been building for months. Last month, I wrote about the massive de-grossing happening under the hood. While Tech was getting hammered, Energy was breaking out to fresh 52 week highs. Not many people cared. Everyone was focused on timing the bottom in Software stocks. Over the last sixteen years,...
14 days ago • 2 min read
9 out of 10. That's how many of this week's Capital Flow Leaders are Energy names. Every week I score the entire S&P 500. Where is institutional money flowing. Is the trend confirmed. Is the move accelerating. One number, 0 to 100. The top 10 stocks with the highest scores become the Capital Flow Leaders. This week, Energy ran the table. Targa Resources. Texas Pacific Land. Baker Hughes. Occidental. Kinder Morgan. Williams Companies. APA. Chevron. The sector ETF itself. Nine names. All...
17 days ago • 2 min read
Price moves first. The story comes second. That is the single most important thing I can teach you about markets. Yesterday Citrini Research published a piece called "The 2028 Global Intelligence Crisis." It's a thought experiment. What happens when AI replaces enough high income jobs that consumer spending collapses? Consumer spending is 70% of US GDP. If those people stop earning, they stop spending. And if they stop spending, it doesn't matter how productive the machines are. The money...
19 days ago • 3 min read