If you’re looking for macro takes, CNBC headlines, or excuses for why nothing works — you’re in the wrong place. The Trading Initiative is where real traders come to level up. We don’t chase news. We don’t follow narratives. We follow price. Led by Hamilton, TTI teaches traders how to identify trends, isolate relative strength, and capture momentum like professionals. If you’re ready to stop second-guessing and start trading like it’s your business, this is where you belong.
The Reflation Trade.. It's So Hot
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No newsletter this morning. Life got in the way. It happens. But we've been talking about a chart all day inside of TTI that I need to share with you before tomorrow's open. XOP. The Oil & Gas Exploration & Production ETF. Look at that base. XOP has been building a cup and handle pattern since 2014. Twelve years. The neckline sits at $170. Price closed today at an 8 year high - pressing directly into the breakout level. If you're not familiar with the pattern, here's the short version: a cup and handle is one of the most reliable long-term continuation patterns in technical analysis. The bigger the base, the bigger the breakout. And this base is enormous. The measured move targets the 1.618 Fibonacci extension at $256. That's 55% from here. But this isn't just a chart pattern. It's the reflation trade in one picture. The reflation trade is what happens when capital rotates into assets that benefit from rising growth and inflation. Think energy, commodities, gold, materials, industrials. The stuff you can touch. That's been the setup since late 2025. And the data confirms it. $4.66 billion has flowed into energy sector ETFs in the first two months of 2026 alone. That's nearly more than the next three sectors combined. The big money is obviously flowing into energy. The question is whether it keeps moving. The one thing I'm watching that could stall this trade is the dollar. DXY is sitting at near 99 right now.. close to pressing into the 100 level for the second time this year. If 100 breaks and holds, the reflation trade faces a headwind that it hasn't dealt with in months. But if the dollar gets rejected again and rolls back toward 97 or lower, XOP probably breaks $170. And a 12-year cup and handle breakout in the energy sector is not something you want to miss. Two levels. That's what I'm watching. 100 on DXY. $170 on XOP. Everything else flows from there. Back tomorrow morning. Profits Over Prophets, Hamilton P.S. The Market Blueprint founders code is still live through Sunday. If you've been thinking about getting access to the full Flow Score data, the weekly tables, webinars, and real-time trade alerts - this is the best price it'll ever be. Once Sunday hits, it's gone. |
The Trading Initiative
If you’re looking for macro takes, CNBC headlines, or excuses for why nothing works — you’re in the wrong place. The Trading Initiative is where real traders come to level up. We don’t chase news. We don’t follow narratives. We follow price. Led by Hamilton, TTI teaches traders how to identify trends, isolate relative strength, and capture momentum like professionals. If you’re ready to stop second-guessing and start trading like it’s your business, this is where you belong.
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A lot happened this week in the markets.. crude oil up 30%+ is obviously where most people are focused. But as I went through our Flow Report yesterday, something stuck out to me that's even more important than what the energy sector is telling us.. This week, $967 million flowed into long duration Treasuries. At the same time, $1 billion left high yield corporate bonds. Another $1 billion left investment grade corporate bonds. Read that again. Institutions are buying government bonds and...