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The S&P 500 and the NASDAQ haven't done much over the last couple of weeks. Go back a month SPY is trading at the same price as it is today. Go back three months and QQQ's showing the same thing. But as one of our traders inside of TTI said yesterday.. "it sure doesn't feel like nothing's happening." He's right. A lot is going on. Massive De-Grossing Under the HoodThe last couple of weeks have been violent.. so if you're just watching the indexes, you're not getting the full picture. Goldman reported "tons of de-grossing under the hood." That's Wall Street speak for hedge funds and institutions aggressively unwinding positions in one area and redeploying into another. You know.. the whole SaaSpocalypse thing. The Software industry (IGV) was down over 30%.. trading around the same price it did back in April '25. The AI scare trade claimed another victim too. Commercial real estate services stocks (CBRE, JLL, Cushman & Wakefield) crashed the most since Covid on fears that AI makes their business models obsolete. On the surface: calm. Underneath: chaos. But if you're a stock picker, this is exactly the environment you've been waiting for. Why Stock Pickers Have the Edge Right NowMarkets move in cycles and spurts. They tend to lull traders into a false sense of security: buy the dip in your favorite stocks and wait. Things like stock selection didn't matter. Everything was pretty much correlated. The weight of the indexes did the majority of the heavy lifting. A rising tide lifted all boats, and the boats that rose the most were the biggest ones. But if there's one thing that's clear so far this year, it's this.. that trade is over. Look at what's happening right now. On any given day, one sector gets annihilated while another rips to new highs. Tech gets sold, industrials get bought. Real estate gets crushed, energy continues screaming higher. The Dow hits records while the NASDAQ bleeds. Think about it: the Software industry was crushed while the Global Robotics & Automation ETF (ROBO) breaks out into new all-time highs. This is a stock picker's market. The kind where relative strength.. knowing which sectors, industries and which stocks are leading actually matters. Where doing the work gives you an edge over the guy who just buys meme stocks and hopes for the best. As I've said before: find which sectors are outperforming, find which industry groups are outperforming, find which stocks within those groups are the strongest. Then buy the one that gives you an entry and wait. That's the process. It's always been the process. But right now, it's paying off more than it has in years. The Sector Rotation That's Telling You EverythingPull up year-to-date sector performance and tell me this looks like the last three years. You can't. Because it doesn't. Energy leading. Materials second. Technology down. Consumer Discretionary down even more. This is a very different market than 2023, 2024 or 2025. What This Rotation Actually MeansIn 2024, you bought the Magnificent Seven and you made money. In late 2025, the cracks started showing. Now in 2026, the rotation is undeniable. Energy, Materials, and Industrials are leading. Technology treading water. The equal-weight S&P 500 outperforming the cap-weighted S&P 500. This is textbook mid-cycle bull market behavior. Early-stage bull markets are narrow. They're driven by a handful of growth and tech leadership names that pull the entire index higher. That was 2023-2025. The AI trade. The Mag-7 trade. Concentration at historic levels. But as a bull market matures, it broadens. Capital rotates from the momentum winners into the laggards. Cyclicals start working. Value starts working. The sectors that benefit from actual economic activity like energy, industrials, materials take the baton from the sectors that benefited from hype and hope. That's what's happening right now. The Dow is at 50,000. But it's not getting there the same way the NASDAQ got to new all-time highs. It's getting there through Caterpillar, through Boeing, through Goldman Sachs. Through the names that make things, build things, and move things. This is healthy. This is what sustainable bull markets look like. What You Should Be DoingIf you're still sitting in last year's winners waiting for the Mag7 to bail you out.. you're going to have a frustrating year. The market is telling you where the money is going. Listen to it. Energy is leading and just made new highs. Industrials are at 52-week highs. 66% of S&P 500 stocks are above their 50-day moving average. That's broad participation, not narrow leadership. The process hasn't changed. Follow relative strength. Go where the market is going, not where it was. This is a market that rewards work. That rewards attention. That rewards the people who actually look at charts and follow price instead of following headlines. Goldman says there's massive de-grossing under the hood. Good. That creates opportunity. Let them unwind their Mag-7 positions. While they're selling, we're finding the strongest stocks in the strongest sectors and riding them higher. That's what we do. I encourage you to join along. Profits Over Prophets, Hamilton |
If you’re looking for macro takes, CNBC headlines, or excuses for why nothing works — you’re in the wrong place. The Trading Initiative is where real traders come to level up. We don’t chase news. We don’t follow narratives. We follow price. Led by Hamilton, TTI teaches traders how to identify trends, isolate relative strength, and capture momentum like professionals. If you’re ready to stop second-guessing and start trading like it’s your business, this is where you belong.
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