Bitcoin has dropped over 50% from its highs.. it touched $60,000 last week.

Some are calling it a generational buying opportunity. Others' are saying it's still $60,000 too expensive.

I don't care either way. All I want to do is make money from it.

So if you want to understand what's actually happening.. and where it goes from here.. you need to stop looking at Bitcoin.

Look at software stocks instead.

Bitcoin and IGV: The Relationship Nobody's Talking About

Pull up a chart of Bitcoin next to IGV - the Software Industry ETF. Microsoft, Oracle, Salesforce, Adobe, Intuit. The big software names.

Now overlay them over the last four years.

They're trading almost 1:1.

This isn't a loose correlation. ByteTree Research measured it last week: Bitcoin's 30-day rolling correlation with IGV sits at 0.73. That's high. That's "basically the same trade" territory.

IGV is down ~25% year-to-date. Bitcoin is down ~20% over the same period. Software stocks started rolling over in October. Bitcoin started rolling over in October.

This is not a coincidence.

Why This Makes Sense

Think about who owns Bitcoin now.

It's not just the guys in your sports betting group chat anymore. It's the same institutional money that owns software stocks. The same funds. With the same risk models. And the same liquidity pools.

When risk-off hits tech, it hits Bitcoin. When software gets sold, Bitcoin gets sold. They're in the same bucket now.

As our crypto analyst Josh put it bluntly: "The market is trading Bitcoin as if it were just another piece of software at this point.."

He's not wrong. And the market is pricing it that way.

So Here's the Question

If Bitcoin is trading like a software stock.. and the data says it is.. then the question isn't "what's the crypto narrative?"

The question is: do you think software is done going down?

Last week IGV broke below its previous cycle highs at 89.50. From failed moves come fast moves is how I learned it.. and a quick bounce back up and over 89.50 would triggers an incredible opportunity to buy software stocks.

But here's where it gets interesting. Last week, while everyone was panicking about AI killing software, $1.5 billion flowed into IGV.That's not retail panic-buying. That's institutional money betting the selloff is overdone.

The narrative is shifting from "software is dead" to "software is on sale."

What Price Is Telling You

Forget narratives. Look at the charts.

IGV dropped 20% in five weeks in high volume. That's a washout. The kind of move that typically precedes a bounce — not a continuation. A major trigger level isn't far off, and the selling has not cascaded into the broader market. The Dow just hit 50,000. The S&P is near all-time highs. This is a sector rotation, not a market collapse.

And here's the thing about sector rotations: they end.

When software bounces.. and it will, whether it's this week or this month.. Bitcoin is going with it. Because that's the trade now. They're linked.

Like with IGV, if Bitcoin can reclaim its previous cycle highs near 70,000, the worst is probably behind us.

And like IGV, an incredible buying opportunity may just show up.

Do not buy into the narratives being pushed online by people paid to get your attention.

What changed is that software got hit and dragged Bitcoin down with it.

That's it.

The Bottom Line

Bitcoin probably isn't going to 0. Software probably isn't either, regardless of how amazing AI is. The truth oftentimes lies in the middle.

If you believe software stocks are going to recover.. and the flows suggest big money already does.. then you're implicitly bullish on Bitcoin too.

You don't have to time the bottom. You just have to understand what you're actually trading.

Right now, if you're trading Bitcoin, you're actually trading software. Act accordingly.

Profits Over Prophets,

Hamilton