Last night my wife and I found out that we're having another boy this year.

I'm excited. Being a dad is easily the best thing I've ever had the honor of being.

This morning as we picked up the house after a wild night filled with Brazilian churrasco, cachaça, cervejas that are so cold that they're more like a slushy than a beer, and more.. I hopped online to check out if I could find a Rolex to purchase for my second son.

A long with a 529, a brokerage account, and whatever the hell the Trump account is.. I want to give each of my son's something when they turn 18 that will hopefully inspire them for the rest of their lives.

Anyway, as I'm looking around online, I click a link that shows a historical look at the values of Rolex's over the last 15 years.

I had no idea that the average Rolex has appreciated over 550% since 2010:

The top Rolex models have appreciated even more.

And other luxury brands are up thousands of percent over the same time period.

Some of these pieces have outperformed the S&P 500 over the same time frame..

Which really highlights something I talk about inside of TTI all of the time:

Secular bull markets are incredible opportunities to make a LOT of money.

I'm not talking about a couple of months, quarters or even years..

Secular markets last decades.

Going back 100 years, a secular bull market lasts on average 15-20 years.

And a secular bear market lasts roughly 8-12 years.

These massive secular cycles are not driven by earnings growth or other company specific fundamentals.

They're driven by long-term shifts in global liquidity, fiscal and monetary policy, capital availability, and technical innovation.

Here's what that looks like going back 100 years:

We're currently in 13th year of a secular bull market that started back in 2013.

These periods are very, very good for traders and investors to maximize their returns before the next secular bear market.

As more and more liquidity enters the system, assets go up in price.

That means your Rolex gets more expensive. Your house gets more expensive. Your Porsche gets more expensive.

The wealthy take the capital being injected into the system and buy things that go up in value to hedge against the devaluing of the dollar which creates a positive feedback loop for the price of assets.

They go up, up, and up over time. If you can hold on, you can make a huge amount of money.

It's a big reason why you see so many mega wealthy individuals and large financial institutions continue to gobble up vast amounts of wealth during these secular bull cycles.. they buy short term pullbacks because they know that the overwhelming secular trend is up. Most people can't. They're one bad short-term cycle away from permanently hating the market.

Until the money valve is turned off, there's no reason to expect a catastrophic pullback in the markets.

And with the Fed resuming quantitative easing, the current administration deregulating the banks, and with an AI-induced frenzy forming.. we're probably a couple of years minimum away from that happening.

At least, that's what the last 100 years worth of secular cycles suggests.

In the mean time, I'm going to buy the other Rolex.

Odds are by the time he turns 18 we'll have gone through another secular bear market AKA that lost decade people have been preparing for for the last 5 years (and have missed out on an incredible run..) and are already on the other side.. entering a new secular bull market.

Until then, I'm going to keep trading the trend and worry about the next bear market when it shows up. Life is a lot easier that way.

Enjoy your Sunday night football, folks!

Profits Over Prophets,

Hamilton

PS. On Friday I hosted our weekly Academy Live webinar where I went over three of the most important things in trading.. risk management, entries and exits.

Lorie, who joined us last month, said it was one of the most informative webinars she's ever sat through. I agree.

You're only as good as your ability to survive the drawdowns.

If you want access to that, including this weeks webinars and trade ideas, you can find the info here: https://docs.google.com/document/d/1IHn3NaLaV460Qi2Ju08nZLthlxTCZcnujx8R0NeBgvQ​