If you’re looking for macro takes, CNBC headlines, or excuses for why nothing works — you’re in the wrong place. The Trading Initiative is where real traders come to level up. We don’t chase news. We don’t follow narratives. We follow price. Led by Hamilton, TTI teaches traders how to identify trends, isolate relative strength, and capture momentum like professionals. If you’re ready to stop second-guessing and start trading like it’s your business, this is where you belong.
The bond market is telling you the old playbook is over
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The bond market is voting with their money. And they aren't buying bonds. The 10-year yield sits at 4.48%. The 30-year just broke above 5%. April CPI came in at 3.8%.. the highest reading in nearly three years. Yesterday's tape was the headline. The bigger story is what the long end of the curve has been telling us for three straight years. The 40-year secular bull market in bonds is over. For four decades the path of least resistance for yields was down. 1981 peak of 15.84%. 2020 low of 0.51%. Every cycle inside that downtrend made a lower low. Every cycle topped at a lower high. That trend broke in 2022 and hasn't recovered. We're not in a bond bear cycle. We're in a new regime. The playbook that worked inside the old regime was built on one assumption.. capital was cheap. Long duration tech ripped because future cash flows discounted at near zero rates were worth almost anything. Passive 60/40 worked because bonds went up while stocks went up. Buy and hold worked because the secular tide lifted everything. Pull that assumption and the playbook breaks. What works in the new regime is different. Cash flow today, not cash flow in 2035. Hard assets, not promises. Dividends and buybacks, not multiple expansion. Sectors with real revenue and real return on capital. Here's the part most people are still missing. The market is currently pricing a 32% chance of a Fed HIKE in December. Not a cut. A hike. The conversation has shifted. The market is no longer asking when the Fed cuts. It's asking how long we live at 4.5%. That question changes everything about how capital should be allocated. This isn't a cycle. It's a regime. The sooner you trade it like one, the better you'll be positioned for everything that comes next. Profits Over Prophets, Hamilton PS — Many of our recent Flow Trades have closed at multiples of entry. INTC ran nearly 2,000% across multiple tranches. Intel was an institutional flow read, not a chart read. The chart caught up later. The bond regime change is the umbrella over every sector setup we're working this year. If you're trading the old playbook in the new regime, you're going to give it back. [Join our Market Blueprint Today→] |
The Trading Initiative
If you’re looking for macro takes, CNBC headlines, or excuses for why nothing works — you’re in the wrong place. The Trading Initiative is where real traders come to level up. We don’t chase news. We don’t follow narratives. We follow price. Led by Hamilton, TTI teaches traders how to identify trends, isolate relative strength, and capture momentum like professionals. If you’re ready to stop second-guessing and start trading like it’s your business, this is where you belong.
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