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Copper is less than 3% from all time highs. Up 15% this year. And almost nobody is talking about it. The trade everyone’s chasing is semis. Then software. Not copper. Never copper. I get it. When semis begin jumping 30% off earnings, it’s hard to look at anything else. But our job isn’t to chase the loudest trade in the room. It’s to recognize a new trend, ride it out, then go find the next one. We’ve been pounding the table on the commodity super cycle for a year now. The DB Commodity Index just ripped to decade highs. Materials have been a point of emphasis in our portfolios the whole way up. So when my analyst Randy flagged copper pushing into all time highs.. it got my attention. Here’s why this one matters. One. Manufacturing is turning, and copper eats first. The AI data center story everyone already knows. The part they’re missing is copper’s tie to the broader manufacturing cycle. Copper is wired into everything. Machinery. Electronics. The grid. Historically it performs best when manufacturing bottoms and starts climbing.. and it doesn’t peak until that momentum rolls over. The cleanest read on that cycle is the ISM Manufacturing PMI. May came in at 54. Anything above 50 is expansion. The cycle’s turning. If history holds, copper’s just getting started. Two. Industrial metals are taking back leadership. For years, precious metals ran the show. Gold and silver. That’s flipping. The industrial metals basket.. copper, aluminum, zinc, nickel.. just broke a years long downtrend against precious metals. These leadership shifts are rare. They show up fast, through sharp reversals. And once they set in, they tend to last for years. This is the first real reversal in favor of industrial metals. We’re in the early innings. Copper itself was a dog against gold and silver. Now it’s outperforming both. Gold and silver are still sitting well below their highs. Copper quietly climbed back to its own. Leadership changes aren’t random.. the market’s sniffing something out. Three. Nobody’s paying attention. This is my favorite part. Google searches for “copper stocks” are still lower than gold and silver.. even though copper’s outrun both. Traders are anchored to last year’s run in the precious metals. They’re not even looking here. And this is where it connects to how we actually track it. As of today, gold ETFs are bleeding outflows. Copper ETFs are pulling money in. That’s capital flow.. the single biggest input in our TTI Flow Score system. The Flow Score doesn’t care about the story. It follows where the money actually goes. Right now the money’s going to copper. So how do we play it? A flat bet on copper isn’t a bad idea. But it’s not where the juice is. The high octane play is the copper miners. They’re consolidating in a clean uptrend. And the miners versus copper ratio just broke out of a major base, holding above a rising long term moving average. When the miners start leading the metal itself, that’s the tell. If industrial metals keep rotating, copper benefits. And if copper runs, the miners run harder. That’s Randy's reading it. And I don't think he's wrong. Recognize the trend. Ride it. Go find fresh meat. The crowd’s still fighting last year’s war in gold and silver. Copper’s making new highs while they look the other way. Profits Over Prophets, Hamilton PS.. the Flow Score lit up copper while everyone was busy with semis. Market Blueprint members already have the copper miner names and the exact levels we’re watching. Everyone else hears about it after it’s moved. [See what the Flow Score is pointing at →] |
Retail doesn't move markets. Institutions do.. and they don't post about it. I'm Hamilton. 17 years trading, three bear markets, still standing. Every morning before the open I show you where the big money's actually moving.. what it's buying, what it's leaving, and what I'm doing about it. 3 minutes, free. The next big move, we're in it instead of reading about it.
In Today’s Letter The S&P 500 has entered year 13 of its secular bull market. The last two secular bulls lasted 16 and 20 years. A bad storm doesn’t necessarily mean the season has changed. Every Sunday, I like to take a step back from the day-to-day market and think about the bigger picture. Not what might move tomorrow.. But what could shape markets for the next several quarters and years. The ideas that aren’t front and center. The questions most traders aren’t asking yet. This week,...
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