Three things that rarely move together are moving together right now.

Software. Bitcoin. Listed private equity. Pull the chart up and overlay them.. same week peak in September, same week trough in March, same V on the screen today. One is the longest-duration cash flow profile in the public market. One has no cash flows at all. One is a levered carry vehicle that does not function without an open credit market. They have nothing in common as businesses. They have everything in common as expressions of financial conditions.

When assets that shouldn't move together start moving together, you stop asking what the businesses are doing and start asking what factor is doing it to them. That work, in this case, is mostly already done.

Three months ago I wrote a piece called Want to Know Where Bitcoin Goes? Stop Looking at Bitcoin. The thesis was that BTC and software had stopped trading on their own narratives and started trading as one bucket. ByteTree had the 30-day rolling correlation at 0.73. Same institutional money. Same risk models. Same liquidity pool. If you believed software was going to bounce, you were implicitly long Bitcoin.

That piece went out in February. Both bottomed three weeks later. Today's chart adds private equity to the same bucket.. and the bucket is now ripping in lockstep.

Option-adjusted spreads strip out the rate component and show you what investors actually demand to take credit risk. CCC sits at 9.04%, off the April highs. B at 3.05%. BB at 1.69%. The broad index at 2.77%. Pull the chart back five years and the picture is louder than any single move.

Spreads across all four tranches are at or near the cycle tights of the entire post-COVID window. The 2022 stress is in the rearview. The early-2025 spike is in the rearview. Credit is priced as if nothing is wrong.. and that is exactly the condition that fuels the highest-beta equity vehicles on the screen above.

Spreads near multi-year tights is not a relief move. That is the credit market voting that financial conditions are loose. The equity vehicles that depend on those conditions are responding.

Yesterday named we defined the Debasement regime. Today's charts are the engine of it. The highest beta vehicles being repriced by loosening conditions, in lockstep, in real time. Call it The Liquidity Trade, because that is what is happening underneath.

Two months ago I wrote Previous Cycle Highs Are Holding. Here's Why That Matters. The argument was that BTC sitting on the $70K polarity level was being defended by institutional flow.. $738M in net weekly inflows, 84% of it through IBIT. That was the call on the bottom. The price followed. Same week we opened CRCL as a Burst Trade. Sold the double. Took more off above 200%.

That's what Profits Over Prophets means. Not predictions. Not narratives. Reading where capital is going and following it before the rest of the market catches on.

The same flow read is happening right now across software, BTC, and private equity together. Wider bucket. Same engine. The setup that produced the BTC bottom and the CRCL Burst Trade is the setup that is now repricing the entire liquidity-sensitive corner of the market.

So what's the trade?

The bucket is wider than it was three months ago. In February it was BTC. In March it was BTC and private equity. Today it's BTC, software, and private equity all moving in lockstep.. with high yield reopening underneath them. Beta to financial conditions is the variable that matters. Everything else is a tiebreaker.

Where The Liquidity Trade sits in our book right now:

1. IBIT for the Bitcoin expression. Long. Same fund that absorbed 84% of the institutional inflows two months ago when I called the cycle-high hold. Easiest way to gain exposure through the options market.
2. KKR for the private equity expression. Long. Already sold the double. Sitting on a risk-free position waiting for the next leg higher.
3. Software.. actively hunting. IGV gives you the broad bet, and it works. But we're looking for the single name inside it that gets the institutional bid first. Capital has been rotating into software since the March bottom. The leader is forming. We are watching for the trigger.

Three positions. One thesis. Two already open and working. One we are waiting to enter on confirmation.

Eight months of correlation that's now resolved upward together on credit reopening. Two of the three legs are already in our book. The third is going to be put on sooner rather than later. Remember that the first leg of any trade is about catching it before everyone else.. because the second leg, when everyone else FOMOs in, is when you get paid.

Profits Over Prophets,

Hamilton

PS.. The BTC/software thesis from February turned into a CRCL Burst Trade for Hit List members. Opened early March. Sold the double. Took more off above 200%. KKR is sitting on a risk-free position after selling the double. The next leg is the software name. The moment the Flow Score triggers, Blueprint members get it first. Get the next trade →​